NBA.com is part of Warner Media, LLCs Turner Sports & Entertainment Digital Network, *Translations are limited to select pages. The Sixers might have found their answer at backup center in the rugged P.J. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. Brook Lopez hasn't played another game this season, and the Bucks would spend all of the first half shuffling players in and out. As of Wednesday night, the Celtics have the best chance in the league to win the NBA Finals at 23%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Youll notice that the odds are listed like this: Lets pretend you believe that the Celtics are the team to beat based on the odds listed above. While John Collins' recent foot injury that kept him out of the final three games of the break is something to monitor, the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks under coach Nate McMillan both last season and this one. Three (the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics . Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +300 Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Beating the LA Clippers on Dec. 31. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Cleveland Cavaliers currently have more conference championship tickets and handle than any other team in the East. Caesars title odds: +100000 Atlanta Hawks (36) NBA Predictions (26). Neil Paine is the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. @JADubin5, NBA (1144 posts) Adding Jae Crowder, whos looked good in three games after so much time off, could add another playoff-proven contributor to the rotation. So something has to give between the two predictions. RAPTOR sees the worst teams as very much the same ones from last season, with Houston, Detroit, Oklahoma City and Orlando projecting for the four worst records in the league. White is exactly the kind of player the Celtics needed, one capable of playing at both ends of the court and, equally important, makes smart, quick decisions with the ball. teams in that category: the defending champion Golden State Warriors, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and (in alphabetical order) the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors. Ahead of todays Game 1 of the NBA Finals, lets get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. The Grizzlies have a league-high 10 rotation players projected as net-positives in total RAPTOR (though one of those is Danny Green, who may not play at all this season). Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely. But the market is bullish on a Lakers team that appears to be more rounded out, with the Lakers ascending up the table from +5000 at the end of January to +2800 immediately after the deadline moves. Durant, 34, has missed his last 20 games with a MCL sprain and Paul, 37, has missed 21 games this season. Design and development by Jay Boice. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. finding their groove has been huge, but so have the additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. 4-seeded Mavericks during the conference finals. While many teams likely still think they're in contention, eight teams are at +1600 or better to . Defense wins championships. Boston shrugged off all the noise and came out of the gates playing fantastic basketball. Troy Brown Jr. who started in place of LeBron finished with 2 points on 1-of-7 shooting, and 0-of-4 from beyond the arc. Boston currently has a greater than 99 percent chance . A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. The distance between Joki and Luka Doni in second place is greater than the distance between Doni and the projected seventh-place player, Jimmy Butler. The duo's working relationship ended at the trade deadline when the Mavericks sent Porzingis and the two seasons remaining on his five-year, $158-million deal to the Wizards. Denvers regular-season resume has been good so far. One thing to watch: Boston's 3-point shooting. The New York Knicks are also moving up the table, though the numbers are still pretty long. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. For all those reasons, the Celtics are favored in the NBA championship odds. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at Heat, March 26 (8 p.m. Its common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game. The Grizzlies have been a little up and down this season, but still sit in second out West. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Now lets move over to the East, where Boston is the favorite with a big caveat. FiveThirtyEight: Suns have a 56% chance to beat Hornets The site gives Charlotte a 44% shot at defeating Phoenix in the NBA game on Wednesday night. Over his last 18 games, hes averaging 28.7 points with bonkers shooting splits (54.4/49.5/91.6). So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. From a mall parking lot altercation to a fight with a teenager during a pickup game, these are the allegations Ja Morant is facing. ET): Any chance to see Antetokounmpo and Embiid go head-to-head is worth watching, but this game could help decide the winner of this year's MVP award. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. At the deadline, the Clippers added Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland in exchange for aging John Wall and Luke Kennard. But when Las Vegas offers a bet on the Nets winning the championship at 7:1 odds, translated to a 12.5 percent likelihood of happening, that is NOT reflective of what they think will happen. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +25000 Web 2022-23 NBA Championship odds. Coach Nick Nurse hasn't hesitated to lean on his stars. KCP is knocking down 45 percent of his threes and fitting in to the Nuggets equal opportunity offense. Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen have been fixtures in the Bucks starting lineup and both are contributing in a big way, knocking down over 40 percent of their threes. It would have been impossible to know at the time, but that win jump-started Toronto's season. I realize this is sort of a radical concept, but if a team is better during the regular season and better during the playoffs, it might just be better. There isn't a more anticipated game the rest of this regular season across the NBA. (New Orleans will also benefit from Zion Williamson actually playing and presumably producing at a high level, which will quickly improve his rest-of-season projection.). Something else worth monitoring: whether fans will be allowed in the building soon, as the Raptors have been playing in empty arenas for weeks now. After Boston, the model sees a group of five teams of roughly similar quality in the Hawks, Heat, 76ers, Raptors and Bucks. In the likely event (to me, at least) that Mobleys projection ends up being too pessimistic, Clevelands odds will certainly improve. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. The Bucks overtook the Celtics for the Easts top spot, despite three-time All-Star Khris Middleton playing just 20 games and still rounding into form. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Count the Bucks among the teams hoping to get healthy before the postseason begins. Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. The expectations were high after the Knicks surprised the league and vaulted to the fourth seed in the East last year, but they have come crashing down to earth in a season filled with inconsistency -- especially on the defensive end. A teams current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Randle played at an All-Star level throughout last season but has been unable to replicate it. Milwaukee has reiterated it expects Lopez, who is recovering from back surgery, and guard Pat Connaughton, who fractured a finger the night of the trade deadline, to return before the end of the regular season. While both teams have had well-documented injuries throughout the postseason, Bostons most important banged-up players Marcus Smart and Robert Williams seem like theyre in better shape than their Golden State equivalents Otto Porter Jr., Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala.). Thats a rookie mistake. Pivot point for the rest of the season: What happens with Irving's playing time? Draymond Green had a recent injury scare but should be returning to the lineup. The next-shortest betting odds to win the NBA Eastern. If so, the Nets are too good to be just a 45-win team. Redistributing minutes from the likes of Jarrett Culver, Jalen Johnson and Vt Krej to Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu will do that. Los Angeles Lakers (95) Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +2500 Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They needed 24 different starting lineups to get through 60 games. The addition of Irving has given Dallas an elite second-scoring option behind Luka Doncic. Thats a powerful advantage, at least during the regular season. The West is very bunched up. You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. Well begin with the West, home of the defending champs. Morant has seen a slight dip in efficiency without Adams bone-crushing screens helping pave the way. Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. It freed up minutes on the wing and gave the Hawks a pick to potentially use down the road to continue to build the roster. Phoenix which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant has been the more popular betting target of the two. The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. Teams finishing in seventh through 10th place (indicated by black border) are in line to compete in a postseason play-in contest. FiveThirtyEights 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. Sacramento has been on a slow rise throughout the season, with the Kings now available in the championship market at 100-to-1. Gambling problem? Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY DAN DAO / GETTY IMAGES. Phoenix - which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant - has been the more popular betting target of the two. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. Eastern Conference. The Nets had all kinds of drama surrounding them heading into the break after trading Harden -- and enduring an 11-game losing streak -- but they finally appeared to turn things around as they headed into the break having won two of three, which included a 28-point come-from-behind win against the Knicks. Pivot point for the rest of the season: If the Knicks want to make a push down the stretch, they'll need more intensity on the defensive end. The Warriors have faced their fair share of doubters this season as theyve overcome adversity to reach their sixth Western Conference finals appearance in the last eight years. And, no matter how it shakes out, some good teams -- including the preseason title favorites Brooklyn Nets, who currently find themselves in eighth place -- will be playing in the play-in tournament. Donis closest comparables for this season include 2003 Tracy McGrady, 2009 LeBron James and 2002 Kobe Bryant, among others. As weve already established, superstars win championships in the NBA, which must be thrilling for the Mavericks, who have NBA MVP candidate Luka Doncic leading their squad. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +340 The FiveThirtyEight projections are significantly less favorable to Golden State than those released by oddsmakers this week, who have the Warriors as the betting favorite to win the championship. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Hawks traded away Cam Reddish (as well as Solomon Hill and a 2025 second-rounder) in January for a protected 2022 first-round pick and Kevin Knox. Toronto has made its unique blend of athletes surrounding All-Star guard Fred VanVleet work, and it has made for an entertaining season north of the border. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values. RAPTOR does not contain a coaching adjustment, so there is no way for it to factor in the absence of Ime Udoka, who was suspended by the Celtics for a year after violating team policy by having an intimate relationship with a female member of the franchises staff. This is not to say there arent any measurable factors breaking in Golden States favor with this matchup. In the most recent update of its NBA predictions, FiveThirtyEight lists the Celtics as the team most likely to win the NBA Finals this season. 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